Johan Franzen Deal; Wings Playoff Opponent
April 12th, 2009 by mikerogersSo, yesterday the first domino of the Hossa-Franzen impending deals fell to the tune of 11 years and $43.5 million getting signed by Johan Franzen. Yes, he’s 29 years old already and that’ll mean he’s locked up through age 40. Most power forwards aren’t effective at age 40, though. And by “most” I mean “pretty much all of them.” Here’s how the contract shapes up:
• 2009-10 — $5.5 million
• 2010-11 — $5 million
• 2011-12 — $5.25 million
• 2012-13 — $5.25 million
• 2013-14 — $5 million
• 2014-15 — $5 million
• 2015-16 — $5 million
• 2016-17 — $3.5 million
• 2017-18 — $2 million
• 2018-19 — $1 million
• 2019-20 — $1 million
Let me just say this, I doubt he sees the end of this deal, either due to retirement, getting bought out, or a combination of the two. Maybe even a trade later on down the line when his cap hit (of $4.96) isn’t that bad for a mid-30’s power forward looking to recapture the magic in a fledgling market. I, personally, believe that the Red Wings can or will buy him out starting in the 2015-16 season. That would be $12.5 million left in salary that they buy out, which, if I’m correct, would correlate out to a $2.5 million cap hit spread over the remaining five years of the deal. But that’s a long ways away and the more immediate concern is how does this relate to next year’s cap?
UPDATE: I forgot to include Darren Helm in this. Helm makes $500K in 09-10. Because of this, I would leave Meech on D, and bring in Leino, Helm, Abdelkader in with Jon Ericsson on defense. That would give us $3 million left after you adjust the roster by bringing these guys in the fold. It also gives us 11 forwards and 8 defensemen. Someone would have to get dealt from the back end. Ideally, I’d like to see Brett Lebda and Brad Stuart moved to make room for Ericsson and Meech since Meech is Brett Lebda, just younger.
I’ve got the Wings with having $51.26 locked up in 16 players and the following as free agents:
Marian Hossa - UFA
Jiri Hudler - RFA
Mikael Samuelsson - UFA
Tomas Kopecky - UFA
Chris Chelios - UFA
Ty Conklin - UFA
Ville Leino - RFA
Jon Ericsson replaces Chris Chelios. Ville Leino and Justin Abdelkader will replace both Samuelsson and Hudler (most likely). Leino is an RFA and made $875K this year, so we’ll make him at $950K million. Abdelkader is at $850K next year. Jon Ericsson will make $900K next year. That is another $2.25 million added on to the previous total salary which gives us 19 players signed for $53.51 million. Say the cap stays the same at $57 million, that would leave us ~$3.50 mil to sign the remainder of our active roster.
My solution is moving Derek Meech up front, that gives us 11 forwards and 7 d-men without adding salary. Jimmy Howard would be up as well, which adds in his $716,667 thousand to the cap situation, and that brings us up to $54.23 million. So, our goaltending is solved. We now have $2.77 million to sign attempt to resign Marian Hossa.
I guesstimate that Hossa would sign for a $5-6 mil cap hit — we’ll just call it $5.5 is what he’d sign for. We have half of that available already. Who do we clear out? Brad Stuart is very possible. $3.75 is a good cap hit for a solid top 4 d-man for a mid-tiered or lower-tiered club, but that depends on the free agent market.
Stuart’s at $3.75
Cleary’s at $2.8 cap hit.
Moving Dan Cleary gives us $5.57 when we needed $5.5, but also leaves us one short up front.
My ideal, we’ll move Brad Stuart and give ourselves $6.52 million. Give Hossa a $5.5 cap hit, which leaves $1.02 million. Keep Derek Meech on to be the 7th d-man or 12th forward, depending on what we need on a given night (a.k.a. the ol’ Matthieu Dandenault role). Keep Hossa, resign Aaron Downey for $550K and that rounds out our roster at:
Forwards
Datsyuk, Franzen, Zetterberg, Hossa, Draper, Maltby, Abdelkader, Leino, Holmstrom, Filppula, Downey, Cleary.
Defensemen
Listrom, Rafalski, Meech, Ericsson, Lilja, Kronwall.
Goalies
Osgood, Howard
This, with the propsed deals of Hossa at $5.5, Downey at $550K, Leino at $950, would be a roster of $56.53 million — $470K left. If we drop Leino to just $900 ($25K raise), we get $720K which is enough for one more league minimum roster player to give us 21 players out of the 23 player max. We’ve carried 22 for the most part.
Obviously this works on a shit ton of “ifs.”
But, by way of Abel to Yzerman, I’ve got that Marian Hossa and Ken Holland were deep in talks yesterday afternoon and that he may be staying in Detroit, afterall — and the cap might not be an issue.
Also, from Jim Mattheson of the Edmonton Journal got this quote from Ritch Winter:
“Let’s see now, we have an 11-year contract and a 12-year contract, so I guess Marian will take 10 or 13 years,” laughed Hossa’s agent Ritch Winter, who talked to Holland about numbers Saturday, although Holland won’t be able to sign Hossa until June because of their cap situation.
But, the article continued and Mattheson wrote this:
Hossa is going nowhere. His cap hit will be in the $6-million range.
Quoting Hossa’s agent Winter saying this:
“I will tell you this: despite what people are saying, the salary cap in Detroit will definitely be no impediment to Marian signing there.”
Read as: The cap situation in Detroit is already figured out, so Ken Holland has his ducks in a row. If Marian Hossa leaves, it’s on his own accord because Detroit will make him their best offer they can — in both years, and dollars. Very interesting.
In other news, the Red Wings officially get the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus definitely has that Edmonton Oilers-circa 2005-06 feel going for it with Steve Mason in net. He’s unreal and I love watching him play, as well as, Rick Nash. That said, I think in the end, the Wings talent should win out. There is a slight bias in what I’m about to say but: Detroit is the best team in the league. Well, when they want to be. If Detroit’s defense clamps down like they are able to, and they should, Detroit should be in the Western Conference Final, no questions asked. If they don’t, though, they’ll only go as far as their average goaltending can take them. I’ll bet on the former though, and they meet up with the Vancouver Canucks for the conference title crown.
I’ll have a post before the playoffs start about how these two teams match up based on their head-to-head matchups this year.
Posted in 2009, Contracts, Dan Cleary, Edmonton Oilers, Jiri Hudler, Johan Franzen, Jonathan Ericsson, Ken Holland, Marian Hossa, Mikael Samuelsson, Playoffs, Rick Nash, Steve Mason, Ty Conklin, Vancouver Canucks, Ville Leino
4 Responses to “Johan Franzen Deal; Wings Playoff Opponent”
By mthompson on Apr 14, 2009
so you’re thinking hudler is gone-zo then?
By Mike R on Apr 14, 2009
mthompson: I just don’t see a way Hudler can fit into the Red Wings cap situation next year. Add in Ville Leino bringing a similar offensive skillset without getting offered $3+ million/year like Hudler will get in July, and I don’t think it’s in the cards. Sad, he’s a great personality and I love interviews with him, but his skillset isn’t all that irreplaceable — getting Helm and Leino in the fold next year is, in my opinion, more important than retaining Jiri Hudler.